Taken for granted -- Take 6: Jupiter

With over a million asteroids in our solar system alone, there are significant dangers of collision with Earth, which could cause devastation to life on Earth, and even mass extinction. We all assume the risk of collision with a large asteroid is zero, and take for granted the reasons why the risk is so low:

1. Jupiter's gravitational influence plays a role in protecting the inner solar system, including Earth, from larger asteroids. Jupiter's massive size and strong gravitational pull can act as a gravitational "vacuum cleaner" for asteroids. Its gravity can alter the trajectories of asteroids, either deflecting them away from the inner solar system or causing them to collide with Jupiter itself. This gravitational interaction with Jupiter helps to prevent some larger asteroids from crossing into the inner regions of the solar system, where Earth is located.

2. Earth's atmosphere, on the other hand, provides protection against smaller asteroids that enter the atmosphere. The friction and heat generated during atmospheric entry cause these asteroids to burn up, disintegrating them into smaller fragments called meteoroids. Most meteoroids pose no threat to the surface as they burn up completely before reaching the ground or are small enough not to cause major disturbances.

The planet Jupiter was named by the ancient Romans. The Romans named the planet after the god of the sky and thunder. This planet is the largest and most massive planet in our solar system. Its mass is significantly greater than that of all the other planets combined. Jupiter has a mass of approximately 1.898 × 10^27 kilograms, which is about 318 times the mass of Earth. It accounts for about 71% of the total mass of all the planets in the solar system. While Jupiter's gravitational influence is not infallible and cannot protect us from all asteroids, it has a significant impact on the dynamics of the solar system. It acts as a "shepherd" for asteroids, affecting their orbits and helping to maintain a certain degree of stability in the inner solar system.

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Are Earth’s asteroid protections, by chance or by design?

Proposition 1: Earth’s asteroid protection is by chance

Since the probabilities of the atmosphere being a protection against asteroids have already been captured in the previous calculations, we will focus our analysis on Jupiter. What are the chances that one of the 8 planets in the solar system has a mass that is 71% of the total mass of the planets to act as a cosmic vacuum cleaner?

While thousands of other solar systems have been discovered, we have not discovered one solar system with a Jupiter-like planet acting as a cosmic vacuum cleaner. Based on this, we can reasonably conclude there is at least a one in a thousand chance Jupiter happened randomly in our realistic case. Our base case will assume a 1 in 8 planet chance, using our solar system as a model.

Proposition 2: Earth’s asteroid protection by design

With over a million asteroids in our solar system alone, the Earth would need protection from collisions, especially with large asteroids, which would impact or devastate life on Earth.

Approximately 66 million years ago a large asteroid devastated the earth. The asteroid, estimated to be about 10 to 15 kilometers (6 to 9 miles) in diameter, struck the Earth near the Yucatan Peninsula, in what is now Mexico. The impact released an enormous amount of energy, equivalent to billions of atomic bombs, causing widespread devastation and significant global consequences.

The immediate effects of the impact were catastrophic. The impact itself created a massive crater, known as the Chicxulub crater, measuring around 180 kilometers (110 miles) in diameter. The impact released an intense shockwave, triggering earthquakes, tsunamis, and massive wildfires. The impact's ejected debris and vaporized rock were launched high into the atmosphere.

The ejected material created a dense cloud of dust and soot that spread globally, blocking sunlight for an extended period. This resulted in a drastic decrease in temperature and a decrease in photosynthesis, causing a disruption in the food chain. The lack of sunlight and a significant drop in temperature led to the collapse of ecosystems and the widespread extinction of many plant and animal species, including the non-avian dinosaurs.

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In the Creation story according to the Bible, how could the asteroid impact and dinosaurs fit into the purpose of the creation?

1. Dinosaur feeding habits, movement patterns, and interactions with vegetation contributed to shaping landscapes and influencing the distribution of plant species. They acted as seed dispersers, aiding in the spread of plant diversity and promoting ecosystem resilience. Dinosaurs were like giant tractors spreading plant life across the earth, helping build oxygen levels in the atmosphere to where they are today.

2. The asteroid impact created many oil and gas deposits, which are essential to providing humans with the energy required for modern life.

3. Since it would be difficult for dinosaurs and mammals and humans to exist on earth at the same time, dinosaurs had fulfilled their purpose. Now was the period of time for mammals to reign supreme, further spreading plant life to improve oxygen levels in the atmosphere in preparation for humans. Mammals did not provide an existential threat to human life like dinosaurs would have.

These conclusions are totally my own interpretation of the geological record and understanding of the creation story. They seem to fit nicely; however, I am sure further scientific discoveries will refine or refute this interpretation.

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In Summary

The creation story is a 50:50 proposition since it cannot be refuted without evidence. Updating the table for the prior series and adding the probabilities discussed above for asteroid protection, and then multiplying the probabilities together, the results are overwhelming:

The chances of all these variables happening by chance are now one in 131 billion in our base case – that’s equivalent to flipping heads 37 times in a row, which would take flipping a coin every 5 seconds, 24 hours a day, for 365 days a year for 20,781 years. The probability of the Creation story is 65 billion times more likely than these random events happening by chance. And we haven’t even included the probabilities of developing more complex forms of life by chance – to be included in future posts.

The chances of all the variables occurring in our realistic case are staggeringly low - one in 10 septillions (10 x 10^25). Compare this to the number of planets estimated in the universe = 2 trillion galaxies X billion stars/galaxy X 10 planets/star system = 1X10^22. The probability of all these variables occurring together is so low that it is lower than the number of planets in the universe. This probability is far lower than the number of planets in the universe, leading to the question, do we really exist, or are we living an illusion. If you are comfortable life is real, then it's most likely the earth was created by design.